Saturday, November 10, 2012

Denver Broncos Week 10 Matchup Preview


Denver Broncos (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-6)

The Denver Broncos squeezed out a win last week against the Cincinnati Bengals mostly behind the arm of Peyton Manning. The only alarming thing about it was that the team was put in a late hole largely due to 2 costly interceptions that Manning threw in the second half. One may have been a communication error between him and emerging wide receiver Eric Decker, but the other was solely on Manning himself. Still, even in that ugly win, we were able to see what a Peyton Manning run team can produce. A never-die attitude where players play above their abilities because they know their quarterback can lead them to victory. It’s safe to say I’m very excited for Denver’s championship probabilities.

Preview:
The Panthers were also one of those teams, much like the Bengals, projected to be very successful this year that have yet to impress. They currently stand at a below average 2-6 record which is good for 4th in the NFC South. They're practically out of the playoff race already, barring any sort of miraculous undefeated remainder of the season.

Cam Newton sulking at another close loss
But that may not be their biggest concern. Their franchise piece, 1st overall pick quarterback Cam Newton, has been struggling this season. Statistically, his passing ability must be put to question. He is completing passes at a decent 57% clip, but has posted only 6 touchdowns compared to his 8 interceptions while having a very mediocre QB rating of 77.7. Mentally, Newton has been under severe scrutiny. He has often been found sulking alone relieving himself of his leadership duties at the end of games that the Panthers lose, and acting as if he is “Superman”, literally, at the end of games that the Panthers win. He has been described as immature, childish, and self-centered by many NFL analysts.

With that in mind, the Broncos bring in the exact opposite of what Newton is behind center. I’ve already made it clear that I have a huge case of Manning-fever at this point, so I won’t draw that out. But the Broncos come into play on Sunday with a nice 3-game winning streak behind them. During that stretch the Broncos have averaged an astounding 33.3 points per game while scoring in a variety of ways, including special teams. 

It is crucial for a team on a roll like this to not surrender any sort of momentum. After going through the extremely rough beginning of the season, Denver has a much friendlier schedule in front of them and need to take advantage of teams that have proven to be mentally weak down the stretch like the Panthers. In their previous 4 losses, Carolina has lost by a total of 10 combined points. A startling number that may point to the lack of ability to close out games or even take leads. This mental weakness will undoubtedly be something that the savvy Broncos shoud try to take advantage of quickly.

3 Keys to the Game:
#1: Cam Newton must be contained. Even though I criticized Newton on his performance this season, he is still a threat. His offensive productivity is something a defense can’t sleep on. Broncos OLB Von Miller stated earlier this week that he plans on doing the Panthers QB’s signature Superman dance if he is able to sack the Newton. Although the idea of that excites me, I would prefer to have anyone else who gets near Cam avoid being a hero, and maintain containment on the explosive quarterback who can make plays happen with not only his arm, but his legs as well (347 rushing yards with 4 rushing touchdowns this season).

McGahee must show up this week
#2: The Denver Broncos run game must show up this week. Last week may have been one of the worst performances of Willis McGahee’s outstanding tenure with the Broncos. His longest rush for the day went for 12 yards, but he had a measly 66 total yards on the ground on 23 carries. That is simply unacceptable. It was evident that although the Cincinnati defense still keyed on McGahee throughout the game, they were more confident in dropping defensive backs in coverage and not respecting the play-action of Manning because of the poor running performance.

#3: The Denver safeties must stop the deep ball. With receivers like Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell and Cam Newton’s explosive arm, the Panthers always have big play ability. Smith is averaging 16.6 yards per catch and LaFell averages a hefty 18.4 yards per catch. That means the safeties of the Denver secondary will be tested throughout the game. I have been, and will continue to be, critical of Mike Adams and Rahim Moore. Yes, they have a serviceable 92 total tackles together, but I contribute a good chunk of that total to the amount of deep balls they allow to be caught. Pass deflections and sure tackling are key for these two in order to quiet the dangerous Panthers.

Prediction:
Although the Carolina Panthers have a bright future ahead of them, I think their playoff chances are completely doused this week. The Broncos should come at the Panthers with a much more prepared running attack against a team that allows 119 rushing yards per game (20th in the league). I expect Newton to be under pressure all game from the aggressive duo of defensive end Elvis Dumervil and outside linebacker Von Miller. Long story short: Newton won’t be turning into Superman this week as the final seconds end.
Manning will be sharp and ready to go against the Panthers

Final Score: Broncos 38 – Panthers 21

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