Thursday, May 9, 2013

Denver Nuggets Off-Season Plans


So let’s recap.

After I posted my last blog entry, the Denver Nuggets managed to lose in the 1st Round of the NBA Playoffs (again) and make me look like a complete fanboy idiot who knows nothing about basketball. I'll admit, I WAS DEAD WRONG. I'M SORRY!
A tough end to a promising season. (NBA)

In summary: the last four weeks have not been fun.

And now the Nuggets are officially in offseason mode, a shocking and harsh reality.

On the day I post this entry (May 9th) Denver GM Masai Ujiri was given “Executive of the Year” honors. So what am I (comically) going to try and do? Tell him what needs to be done to push Denver into Championship contenders. I’m not saying I know everything, but if I was given keys to the Denver Nuggets car I have a pretty good idea of what I’d do with some of the situations facing the Nuggets during the offseason (in no particular order).

1.  Offer Andre Iguodala the exact same contract that Ty Lawson received last offseason.

*I know that Iguodala has a one-year player option left on his contract for about $15 million, but it’s been reported that he is going to opt out of that and explore free agency. I’m going to assume that’s what will happen.*

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Iggy was definitely the biggest disappointment this season. When Denver traded for him I expected an incredible shift in culture. That just didn’t happen.

Don’t get me wrong, I love what Iguodala brings to the game. I even bought his jersey! But is he worth $15 million? Absolutely not. Ty Lawson received a four year $48 million contract extension last offseason and I’d be comfortable signing Iguodala to an identical contract. Anything more and Denver should really be hesitant. What message would they be sending to the team if they gave Iguodala more? That he is more valuable than Ty? No way.

I have a nice little Bill Simmons-esque exercise to put Iggy into perspective. Here are some per-game averages of three players this past season:

Player A: 37.4 min/ 13 Points/ .451 FG%/ .317 3PT%/ 5.3 Rebounds/ 5.4 Assists/ 1.7 Steals/ .574 FT%
Player B: 36.3 min/ 15.5 Points/ .486 FG%/ .385 3PT%/ 5.3 Rebounds/ 3.5 Assists/ 1.0 Steals/ .729 FT%
Player C: 36 min/ 16.5 Points/ .439 FG%/ .300 3PT%/ 3.7 Rebounds/ 3.2 Assists/ 0.6 Steals/ .857 FT%


Now, can you guess who's who?

Another missed FT? I'd bet on it. (NBA)
Player A is Andre Iguodala. Player B is the Houston Rockets' Chandler Parsons. And Player C is former Denver Nugget Arron Afflalo. Both Afflalo and Parsons made significantly less money than Iggy this past season and produced very similar numbers. Obviously there are some situational differences involved in each players' case. For example: Afflalo plays on the Orlando Magic, he's basically is star compared to the rest of that roster. But the statistics are very telling of a players production story. And Iguodala's depicts a story about a very overpaid player.

Iggy's abismal .574 FT% is just not worth $15 million. And neither is his (extremely) overrated defense. No way, no how. If he demands anything more than Lawson's contract, I'd let him walk. 

2a. Trade for a "star player". I'm going to be flat out honest here: Ty Lawson is a star. I don't care what anyone else tells me. He's proved it. He's made clutch shots, taken over games, and been a model point guard. But the NBA community has it wrong. You don't need a star to win an NBA Championship. You need at least two. With the exception of having a future Hall of Famer.

Let's look at the last five NBA Champions:

2012- Miami Heat (LeBron James and Dwyane Wade... and I guess Chris Bosh... Lol.)
2011- Dallas Mavericks (Future HOF player Dirk Nowitzki) 
2010- L.A. Lakers (Future HOF players Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol... and Bynum... and Odom)
2009- L.A. Lakers (Future HOF players Kobe Braynt and Pau Gasol... and Bynum... and Odom...again)
2008- Boston Celtics (Three Future HOF players in Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen)

No one can tell me one star is necessary to win a championship. An NBA team needs multiple. Look at how much OKC is currently struggling with just Kevin Durant. Golden State (darn them) would be a legitimate NBA Championship Contender if they had another "star" player alongside Steph Curry. Right now they're just an upset machine. 

It pains me to say it but Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried, JaVale McGee, and yes... Andre Iguodala are NOT stars. Productive starters? Absolutely. Stars? Nope. 

2b. Trade Kenneth Faried for that star.

"OMG NOOOOOOOOOOOO WHY WOULD YOU TRADE THE MANIMAL?!?!?!" -says everyone. Well, that's exactly why.

There is this idealized vision of who Kenneth "the Manimal" Faried is. Yes, he's a hustler. He's a fighter. He's a coaches dream. And boy can he jump. His hair is just beautiful. When he pumps up the crowd I realize what love truly is. Okay folks, take off the fanboy/fangirl glasses. 

He is also a horrific offensive half-court player. Probably the worst on-ball defender on the team. He's undersized and can't make a free-throw to save his life. It's pretty unanimous around the league that this guy can become a future star, but I'm betting that he wont. 

Right now is the perfect time to package him in a deal for a star. Teams love him, and he's still young and affordable. So who would I want in return? Minnesota Timberwolves' Kevin Love.

A good friend of mine recently sent me an article written by the Denver Post's Mark Kiszla. He suggested Denver Trade McGee and Faried for Love. I did a little bit of research on this matter and it seems like there is legitimate interest from Denver for Love.

The link here: http://http://bit.ly/17OPWwB

Kevin Love in Denver could be deadly. (Getty Images)
Love has been in and out of injuries the past two seasons. The risk is there. But the reward is plentiful. On a bad day, he is still a better defender and rebounder than Faried or McGee. He holds the record for consecutive double-double games with 53. Had the first 30-30 (points and rebounds) in 28 years. His size is preferable. And oh, he also owns an NBA 3-Point Contest Champion trophy. Wait, what?? This trade alone can push Denver into that NBA Finals discussion.

***Just a quick note to you JaVale McGee lovers out there. Anyone who says McGee deserves more play time is right. He did deserve more than 18.1 minutes per game. JaVale should've had about 20 minutes per game. Look guys, McGee is McGee. If you give him too much time on the floor he turns into the guy everyone knows and loves to make fun of. Do you honestly think George Karl is that stupid? To not play a freak-of-nature like JaVale McGee more if he deserved it? If he could keep it together for that many minutes??

McGee playing 20 minutes per game is likely to do things like this:












McGee playing the 30+ minutes per game everyone seems to think he deserves is likely to do things like this:



















3. Pursue Kyle Korver like he is LeBron James.

If any of you guys don't know who Kyle Korver is, let this YouTube video give you a quick rundown:

I was fooled. I thought that having players with 3-point shooting capabilities was good enough. Gallo, Ill-Will, Corey Brewer and even Iggy. But shooting a team .343 3PT%, good for a horrendous 25th in the league, just doesn't cut it. Teams need players that can actually make 3's down the stretch, not just have the ability to. There is a difference. Anyone can take shots. But it's something different to have a proven career of knocking down trey after trey.

Korver was 2nd in the NBA this season in 3PT% at .457 (2.6/5.6 per game). He is also a career .419 3PT% shooter. That is a proven track record. Denver absolutely needs someone who can consistently make a 3-point shot. Not someone who thinks they can. *cough cough* Corey Brewer.

Kyle Korver will be an unrestricted free agent this upcoming off-season which is great news for Denver. Atlanta will have financial trouble keeping both him and Josh Smith. Reports say that a sign-and-trade deal involving Korver is likely. This is great news for a Denver Nuggets team that constantly brags about its depth. Atlanta needs the free cap space and short contracts, Denver can offer that. I would gladly ship any mix of Corey Brewer (who is also an unrestricted free agent), Kosta Koufos, Jordan Hamilton, Evan Fournier, Anthony Randolph and a conditional draft pick for Korver's range.

4. Look for a new back-up point guard.

Let's take a moment to thank Andre Miller for allowing us to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Golden State Warriors.........

Okay, are you done? Because now he's gotta go. I love Miller. When I first started watching the Nuggets about 10 years ago he was my favorite player. But his age has caught up to his decision making, and I'm sick and tired of watching him think that he's 23 years old and play like he's 50. Denver can't just wait around for a 20 point 10 assist game every 15 games and use that to justify his spot on the team. He has been much more consistently bad this season.

Shane Larkin, anyone? (Yahoo!)
Ideally this player would be someone who could knock down a shot and change the pace once Lawson takes a rest. i.e. Denver doesn't need a player like Nate Robinson. Free agency doesn't look too promising. D.J. Augustin or Devin Harris could be available, but they're not exactly ideal. I'd like to draft the back-up.

Shane Larkin of Miami would be nice. He's explosive and has proven to have a nice handle. But his stock is a little high for Denver's spot. That might mean trading up or trying to find a gem later in the draft.

5. Demote Kosta Koufos.

Denver showed it's biggest weakness in the series against Golden State. If a team has a strong and capable center, they can just demolish the Nuggets in the paint. Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli exposed Denver. The Steph Curry show was the highlight, but the unsung hero award goes to Bogut.

All things considered, Koufos wasn't horrendous this season. He averaged 8 points and 7 rebounds per game on 22.4 minutes. Solid numbers. But Koufos proved to be too weak down low. Just because you have the body doesn't mean you have the ability. He was often bullied and seemed scared to finish around the rim against bigger, stronger more athletic centers. McGee isn't the ground and pound center, and Koufos proved to be incapable of that as well.

No more Koufos, please. (NBA)
I mean come on, does anyone remember an outstanding highlight of this guy during the season? One? I can't, and I watched just about every game. Not to mention he completely disappeared during the playoffs forcing McGee into the starting lineup. That is simply unacceptable.

Personally, I'd let Mozgov get a year as the starting center (see my earlier post "The Mozgov Effect". I would LOVE to sit through practices and see why Mozzy has been benched all season long, but maybe my idea of him is just nonexistent?

If a deal involving Kevin Love actually happened, that would mitigate this problem. But assuming that doesn't happen, I'm not really sure what else to do with this position. Legitimate centers don't come around often, and if Denver were to acquire one they would be locked and loaded. Hey, maybe Greg Oden can do something nice? Hahahahahahahaha......

Denver's roster, as-is, over-performed this season. I fully believed that was possible and it happened. But I would love to see some more improvements. No team is perfect, and I'm tired of getting knocked out in the first round.

I WANT A CHAMPIONSHIP!