Denver Nuggets Playoff Forecast

Well, it’s been a while. About 4 months to be exact. I know all three of my readers missed me, so I apologize for my hiatus and promise not to do that again.

Just to recap a little: My last blog post was about the Denver Nuggets and the state of their playoff run. At the beginning of the season I boldly predicted a Western Conference Championship for Denver and let’s be honest, everybody thought I was crazy. Heck, I think I partly thought I was crazy. But something about this team had me excited.

Denver is on pace for a deep post-season run. (AP)

The Nuggets have had their real ugly moments. Sloppy decision-making, no defense, lack of the “star” player and questionable coaching all seemed to be staples of this team for different stretches at a time. But something changed during the course of the season. The “on” switch was flipped.

Today, Denver stands as the #3 seed in the Western Conference with a franchise-best 57 wins. They hold an absolutely bonkers 38-3 record at home, average 106.1 points per game (1^st in the NBA) and have had excellent coaching down the stretch.

So where do I see the Nuggets finishing the season?

You probably could have guessed, the NBA Finals.

Here are 5 reasons why.

Number 1: Potent Scoring

As mentioned earlier, Denver averages 106.1 points per game. I don’t care who you are, that’s just a crazy stat. But what might be more ridiculous is HOW they’re doing it. Denver has no 20-point-per-game player. In fact, they don’t even have a 17-point-per-game player. Ty Lawson leads the way at 16.7. There are six players that average double digits per game (five subtracting Danilo Gallinari because of his injury) along with Andre Miller and JaVale McGee both averaging over 9. The Nuggets can attack a team from every side. They can attack in the paint, they can run, they can lob, and they can stretch the floor with deadly 3-point range. Basically, if you’re playing Denver, you better have all five defenders back on D. And that still won’t be good enough.

Number 2: Depth

My heart hurts when I see this picture, but Denver will survive (SI)

“But Justin, Danilo Gallinari is injured. What ever will the Nuggets do?!” I kind of laugh because when I first saw Gallo go down with an ACL tear I asked myself the same question. But in the coming games I gained perspective. The Nuggets will be okay. Yes, Gallinari’s injury wasn’t ideal, but it wasn’t the end of the world. The fact that they’ll be okay without their 2^nd leading scorer kind of speaks to the depth of this team. Including the game Gallo went down, the Nuggets are 6-1 in that span. Their only loss was an overtime game in Dallas. The team averaged 110.7 points per game during that same stretch as well. Just take a deep breath folks. Denver is fine. Side note: I know Kenneth Faried and Lawson are hobbled right now too but somehow, every night, a new player seems to step up. Evan Fournier has average 12.3 points per game the last 9 games. Did I really just say that? Yeah… depth.

Number 3: Wilson Freaking Chandler

"Ill-Will" is killing it. (SB Nation)

I think I might have one of the biggest man-crushes on this guy right here. Chandler has dealt with injuries right from the get-go with the Nuggets. I feel this allowed the world to forget about how good he is. Since "Ill-Will" (might I point out he also has one of the coolest nicknames ever) has arrived at full capacity (I’m going to use his last 30 games as a benchmark) he has averaged 14.9 points per game in just 27.5 minutes. Chandler can drive the ball with the best of them and then he can take a step-back 3 right in a defenders face. He also may be one of the most underrated and versatile defenders in the league. I’ve seen him very capably guard Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, and the list goes on.

Number 4: Coaching aka George Karl

57-25, need I say more? Well obviously I do because everyone seems to hate this guy. Yeah, sometimes I’m left scratching my head with some of Karl’s strategies too. But this team has obviously bought into the product he is selling. They trust him and he trusts them. And I know that all of us who watch the games from TV are very reliable sources of determining what a good coach is, but let’s just let the pro with over 1000 career victories handle it for now. If he doesn’t win Coach of the Year this season, I will physically be sick.

Number 5: Denver Plays Defense (kinda)

Yeah, the half court setup still isn’t perfect. Sometimes players like McGee seem completely lost against teams like the Spurs or Grizzlies that try to slow things down. But Denver has an ability to take every missed shot, and often made shots, and flip the ball to the other end of the court in like half a second, negating any progress their opponents made on the offensive side. So essentially, their offense is their defense. And it’s pretty solid. I mean the point of the game is to score more buckets than the other team right? Also, having solid veteran wing defenders like Andre Iguodala, Wilson Chandler, and Corey Brewer doesn’t hurt.

So there you have it. 5 real quick reasons I believe Denver will STILL win the Western Conference and inevitably play the Miami Heat in the Finals.